Methodological Insights from Robust Least Squares Regression: Climate Risk, Economic Factors, and Forest Ecology Management in Pakistan

Abstract

The study of forest ecology is essential to achieve sustainable development goals. One of the critical determinants of forest ecology is the impact of climate risk. The recent floods in Pakistan have highlighted the role that factors such as deforestation, resulting from increased economic infrastructure, can play in exacerbating the effects of climate risk. This study examines the relationship between climate risk factors and forest ecology in the context of Pakistan's economy, using data from the last three decades. The study used robust least squares regression to minimize outliers and reduce irregularities in the model. The results indicate that water scarcity, high temperatures, agriculture technology, and poverty in rural areas negatively impact forest ecology in Pakistan. On the other hand, excessive rain and the active involvement of community stakeholders positively impact forest ecology. However, it is also noted that implementing agricultural mechanization can positively impact the conservation and improvement of forest ecology. Overall, a comprehensive and multi-disciplinary approach must be taken to address the impact of climate risk on forest ecology in Pakistan, involving collaboration among government, private sector, and civil society actors.