Remote Sensing and Ecological Modeling of Forest Fragmentation, Biodiversity Loss, and Climate-Driven Wildlife Habitat Shifts Across Pakistan's Mountain and Dryland Ecosystems

Abstract

Pakistan's mountain and dryland forests are retreating at an accelerating pace, yet the interaction between landscape fragmentation and climate-driven range contraction has not been examined in any systematic way for this region. This study combined multi-temporal Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 imagery spanning 2008 to 2023 with MaxEnt species distribution models, a five-model climate ensemble (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), and Marxan conservation planning to characterise forest change, biodiversity response, and habitat vulnerability across 8.2 million hectares of the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan and dryland zones. Over the study period, forest cover fell by 850,000 ha (10.4%), while core interior area declined by 34.7% and patch count rose by 80.8%, together indicating a fragmentation trajectory incompatible with the persistence of area-sensitive taxa. Occupancy of six apex predator species collapsed by more than 70%, and species richness in fragmented patches was 28 ± 4.3% lower than in intact interior forest. Under RCP 8.5, endemic high-altitude species face projected habitat losses of 24 to 71% by 2050, a figure that understates true risk because fragmented landscapes restrict the dispersal responses species need to track shifting climatic envelopes. Exposing populations to both stressors simultaneously produced habitat loss roughly 1.5 times greater than additive predictions, a synergy driven by the inability of isolated populations to access climatically suitable terrain elsewhere. Marxan analysis identified 1.34 million hectares of conservation priority land, 68% of which lies outside existing protected areas. These findings point to an urgent need for corridor establishment and protected-area expansion across the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan system if species are to retain the spatial freedom required to respond to accelerating climatic change.