Climate Change, Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Agricultural Productivity in Pakistan: Evidence from an ARDL-ECM Framework (1980-2024)

Abstract

This study examines the nexus between agricultural productivity and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in Pakistan from 1980 to 2024. This paper investigates the short and long-run effects of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) on agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP) using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Variables controlled for in the model include rainfall, temperature, fertilizer use, and irrigated land. The ARDL Bounds Test indicates a long-run relationship among these variables. The results demonstrate that temperature has a positive, statistically significant effect on agricultural productivity in both the short- and long-term. However, rainfall negatively affects production in the short run. The short-term effect of increased agricultural productivity is associated with nitrous oxide emissions, but methane emissions have no significant long-term effects. The large negative error-correction term supports the stability of the long-run equilibrium. The paper promotes climate-resilient agricultural policies, improved irrigation management, sustainable fertilizer practices, and effective emission-mitigation techniques to enhance agricultural output and environmental preservation in Pakistan.

JEL Classifications: Q15, Q50, Q54, Q57