Econometric Modeling of Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Uzbekistan: An Empirical Study

Abstract

Empirical evidence is mixed while agricultural exports are an important source of growth for many developing countries. This study aims to examine the effect of agricultural export, governmental support and agricultural productivity on the growth of the economy of Uzbekistan. The research design adopted was quantitative and the data obtained were primary data from 300 respondents comprising farmers, exporters, agribusiness and policy stakeholders. Data were analyzed by SPSS descriptive statistics, reliability analysis (Cronbach's Alpha), Pearson correlation analysis and Multiple Regression analysis. It was specified that the econometric model is EG = β₀ + β₁AE + β₂GS + β₃AP + ε. The reliability of the measurement scale was very good (Cronbach's Alpha was 0.914). Each of the three independent variables had a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Agricultural exports had the strongest impact (β = 0.737, p < 0.001), followed by government support (β = 0.130, p = 0.001) and agricultural productivity (β = 0.094, p = 0.020). The model explained 78.8% of the variance in economic growth (R² = 0.788, F = 367.251, p < 0.001). The results are consistent with the export-led growth hypothesis. Along with government assistance and productivity gains, agricultural exports have the greatest potential to drive economic growth. The recommendations made are to improve access to export markets, improve institutional support, and technological adoption in agriculture.

Keywords: Econometric modeling; agricultural exports; economic growth; government support; agricultural productivity; export-led growth; Uzbekistan