The Quantum Race: U.S.-China Strategic Competition in Quantum Computing, Sensing, and Communications

Abstract

This article examines the intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China across three interrelated domains of quantum technology: quantum computing, quantum sensing, and quantum communications. Drawing on a qualitative comparative case-study methodology and engaging with theoretical frameworks of techno-nationalism, great-power competition, and military innovation, the article argues that quantum technologies have transcended their origins as instruments of scientific discovery and are now emerging as critical vectors of national power. Quantum capabilities hold the potential to compromise existing encryption architectures, transform battlefield intelligence and surveillance, revolutionise secure command-and-control communications, and render certain conventional deterrent postures strategically vulnerable. The article analyses the strategic investments, institutional ecosystems, and policy architectures through which both states are mobilising quantum capabilities, and it assesses the implications for military advantage, nuclear deterrence, and strategic stability. It concludes that the quantum race introduces new forms of uncertainty and instability into an already fraught great-power relationship, and that the absence of governance mechanisms or confidence-building measures in this domain represents a significant gap in international security architecture. The article contributes to the growing literature on emerging technology and strategic competition by offering a comprehensive comparative assessment of quantum power in the context of U.S.-China rivalry.