Comparative Analysis of Macronutrient Availability Across Decades

Abstract

The growth of the world population and the parallel development of food systems have led to significant changes in the allocation of nutritional resources over the past six decades. This study examines long‑term trends in demographic expansion and per‑capita nutrition between 1961 and 2050, focusing specifically on caloric, protein, and fat supply. Global population size was treated as the independent variable, with regression analysis conducted in R version 4.5.2 to model daily per‑capita nutrient availability. The findings reveal strong positive associations: caloric supply increases by approximately 142 kcal/day for each additional billion people (R² = 0.985), protein supply rises by about 4.6 g/day (R² = 0.994), and fat supply grows by roughly 6.6 g/day (R² = 0.993). These results support the conclusion that food systems have scaled proportionally with population growth, reflecting advances in agricultural productivity, trade networks, and distribution processes. However, aggregate improvements obscure persistent regional inequalities and emerging challenges, including climate change impacts, resource depletion, and public health concerns linked to the nutrition transition. By combining demographic projections with nutrient supply modeling, this study highlights both the successes of food system intensification and the urgent need for sustainable and equitable nutritional strategies to be implemented before 2050.