Advancing Carbon-Neutral Cement Manufacturing through Next-Generation Material Substitution: A Simulation-Driven Scenario Analysis of Shenzhen, China

Abstract

The cement industry remains one of the largest industrial contributors to global carbon dioxide emissions, primarily due to the energy-intensive nature of clinker production and the calcination of limestone. Achieving carbon neutrality in cement manufacturing therefore requires transformative approaches that extend beyond incremental efficiency improvements. In this context, material substitution particularly the reduction of clinker through next-generation low-carbon binders has emerged as a critical decarbonization lever. This study investigates the potential of advancing carbon-neutral cement manufacturing through next-generation material substitution using a simulation-driven scenario analysis, with Shenzhen, China, serving as a representative urban and industrial case study. The proposed framework integrates cement composition modeling, emissions accounting, and scenario-based simulation to evaluate multiple clinker-reduction pathways under realistic technical, regulatory, and supply constraints. Several substitution scenarios are developed, including a baseline ordinary Portland cement configuration, moderate substitution using conventional supplementary cementitious materials, and advanced low-clinker pathways incorporating next-generation binders such as calcined clay–limestone systems. Each scenario is assessed in terms of carbon intensity, energy demand, and substitution feasibility, using a functional unit of one tonne of cement. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are conducted to capture variations in material availability, electricity emission factors, and substitution ceilings. The results demonstrate that next-generation material substitution can achieve substantial reductions in cement-related carbon emissions, with advanced low-clinker scenarios showing the highest mitigation potential relative to the baseline. Simulation outcomes indicate that clinker reduction dominates emission abatement, while energy efficiency and electricity decarbonization play complementary roles. Importantly, the analysis reveals trade-offs between emission reductions and material availability, highlighting the necessity of region-specific strategies rather than uniform substitution targets. Shenzhen’s industrial context illustrates how city-level policy alignment, standards adaptation, and supply-chain readiness significantly influence the feasibility of deep decarbonization pathways. This study contributes to the growing body of cement decarbonization literature by providing a city-scale, simulation-based assessment of next-generation material substitution strategies. The findings offer practical insights for policymakers, manufacturers, and urban planners seeking to accelerate the transition toward carbon-neutral cement production. The proposed framework is transferable to other regions and can support evidence-based decision-making for sustainable construction and industrial transformation.